The 2026 forecast · against the result
Silverware picked Argentina. Spain won.
Before kick-off, all 48 squads for the Canada/Mexico/USA World Cup were ranked by the club trophies their players had won. The tournament has now been played: 104 matches. Spain beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the final.
The model behind the ranking was fitted on the World Cups from 1998 to 2022 and never saw 2026. So 2026 is an eighth held-out tournament, scored the same way as the other seven.
The held-out score
The same measures the site uses for 1998 to 2022, where each tournament is held out in turn.
lower log-loss than the baseline
0.94 against 1.07. Average for 1998 to 2022: 5.6%.
of matches called right: win, draw or loss
Average for 1998 to 2022: 54.9%.
of 80 decisive matches won by the more decorated side
1998 to 2022: 72.3%. A count, not a model.
Log-loss and accuracy come from the ordinal logit (proportional odds) on the pedigree gap, fitted on 1998 to 2022 (440 matches). The baseline always predicts the 1998 to 2022 shares of wins, draws and losses. Shoot-outs count as draws, as in every earlier tournament (4 in 2026). One tournament is a small sample: from 1998 to 2022, a single held-out tournament ranged from 0.4% to 14.7% lower log-loss.
Silverware's pick
The most decorated squad of the 48: 506 pedigree points, with 85% of the squad already title winners.
implied odds of a better result than an average 2026 side
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF) · Leandro Paredes (Boca Juniors) · Julián Alvarez (Atlético Madrid)
“Implied edge” applies the fitted odds ratio (1.61× per standard deviation, ordinal logit) to each squad's pedigree z-score within 2026. It is a pedigree signal, not a bookmaker's price.
The champion
Spain, ranked 5th of 48 by pedigree. From 1998 to 2022 the median champion ranked 6th, and the most decorated squad won once in 7.
Bad news for the big names
Traditional heavyweights that arrived with thinner cabinets than usual, judged against their own history rather than the field.
Bad news for
Group stageTurkey
Arrived ranked 17th of 48 by club pedigree, 0.9 SD below their own average from 1998 to 2022. It was the least decorated squad they had brought. Result: Group stage.
Arda Güler (Real Madrid CF) · Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter Milan) · Abdülkerim Bardakcı (Galatasaray S.K. (football))
Bad news for
ChampionsSpain
Arrived ranked 5th of 48 by club pedigree, 0.5 SD below their own average from 1998 to 2022. Result: Champions.
Fabián Ruiz (Paris Saint-Germain FC) · Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Bilbao) · Rodri (Manchester City F.C.)
Dark horses
Squads ranked outside the top six that arrived more decorated than their own history.
Dark horse
Quarter-finalsMorocco
Arrived ranked 9th of 48 by club pedigree, 1.0 SD above their own average from 1998 to 2022. Result: Quarter-finals.
Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain FC) · Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid CF) · Noussair Mazraoui (Manchester United F.C.)
Dark horse
Last 32Croatia
Arrived ranked 7th of 48 by club pedigree, 0.8 SD above their own average from 1998 to 2022. Result: Last 32.
Luka Modrić (AC Milan) · Mateo Kovačić (Manchester City F.C.) · Ivan Perišić (PSV Eindhoven)
Dark horse
Last 32Austria
Arrived ranked 14th of 48 by club pedigree, 0.7 SD above their own average from 1998 to 2022. Result: Last 32.
David Alaba (Real Madrid CF) · Konrad Laimer (FC Bayern Munich) · Paul Wanner (PSV Eindhoven)
Dark horse
Last 16United States
Arrived ranked 16th of 48 by club pedigree, 0.7 SD above their own average from 1998 to 2022. Result: Last 16.
Timothy Weah (Olympique de Marseille) · Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) · Chris Richards (Crystal Palace F.C.)
All 48, by pedigree, with the result
7 debutant nations arrived with little or no club pedigree history: Curaçao, DR Congo, Cape Verde, Uzbekistan, Haiti, Iraq, Jordan.
The caveat
This is a pedigree forecast. It counts club silverware won before kick-off on 2026-06-11 and nothing else: no form, no fixtures, no draw. As everywhere on this site, pedigree is associated with winning, not a cause of it: elite players win club trophies and get picked by strong nations.
Results from Wikipedia, read at fixed revisions: Group A · Group B · Group C · Group D · Group E · Group F · Group G · Group H · Group I · Group J · Group K · Group L · round of 32 · knockout stage · final.